We are in that season again, aren’t we, when political
tension is the major topic of discussion, day and night, in
Nigeria. On the 50th anniversary of the declaration of
Biafra, the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) has been
increasing the volume of its campaign for secession. In
response, the Northern Youth Coalition (NYC) issued a
notice to all Igbo to leave the north by October 1, 2017. In
the Niger Delta, there has been some peace — peace of the
graveyard — after a lot of bombing that crippled the
nation’s economy last year. Boko Haram, lest we forget,
has neither retreated nor surrendered in its armed
campaign for the Islamisation of Nigeria.

The Yoruba, meanwhile, are watching from the sidelines,
perhaps waiting for what would happen to Vice-President
Yemi Osinbajo in the coming months. Rumour is already
doing the round in the north that President Muhammadu
Buhari was poisoned in order for power to return to the
south-west. This rumour is quite lethal given the street
following Buhari enjoys up north and the likely backlash
for the Yoruba, and the rest of Nigeria, if he does not
recover. Coup rumours are rife: the military allegedly
wants to keep power in the north if anything happens to
Buhari. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Chief Bisi Akande have
warned about an upcoming “resistance”.

To tell the truth, I have never been this worried about
peace and stability in Nigeria since the political crisis of
1993 and the reign of terror by Gen. Sani Abacha. I
consider the brewing crises (not just crisis) as potentially
the worst in our history — because of the different
dimensions. I believe Biafra failed because it was 75% of
the country against 25%. The June 12 crisis was also
relatively contained for the same reason. But if we have a
resurgence in Niger Delta militancy, on top of Biafra and
Boko Haram, and a renewed “NADECO” from the south-
west, we will be biting too much. Maybe I am getting too
nervous, but it doesn’t look too pretty to me.

What then must we do to be saved? I wish I had the
answers. It seems Nigerians are perpetually in love with
separatism. We keep experiencing this in different shapes
and sizes, from the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), the
Arewa People’s Congress (APC), the Movement for the
Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra (MASSOB),
to the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta
(MEND) in early to mid-2000s. We survived them all: OPC
rebranded itself after endless battles with the police and
needless bloodshed; MASSOB specialised in
demonstrations and soon faded out; MEND bombed the
pipelines and became a global brand; and APC never
really made it.

The June 7 Kaduna Declaration by Arewa youth groups is
yet another step towards the precipice. I remember when
the now anonymous APC was formed in December 1999
by retired Captain Sagir Muhammed, a former operative of
the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI), its declared
aim was “to preserve the indivisibility of the country”. The
group said it would begin “full self-defence training for
northern residents” in reaction to attacks on Hausa
people by OPC in the south-west. OPC was eventually
caged (President Olusegun Obasanjo famously issued a
shoot-on-sight order to security agencies). APC
subsequently petered out.

Just as APC was the counterforce to OPC, should we take
NYC as the antidote to IPOB? Should we assume that the
threat to expel Igbo from 19 northern states is designed to
put IPOB on the back foot? We all know Igbo are all over
the country. (There is this joke that anywhere you go and
you don’t see an Igbo, please run away because it is not
fit for human habitation.) By threatening millions of Igbo in
the north, NYC may force influential Igbo leaders to call
IPOB to order to avoid endangering the lives of their kith
and kin up there. The message, I think, is that the Igbo
have more to lose. If that is the NYC strategy, it will work
for now. But I don’t know if it will work forever.

However, I think we are muddling too many issues in the
heat of the moment. It will serve us better to step back a
bit and put some matters in perspective. One, the
fundamental issue here is whether or not the agitation for
Biafra is legal and legitimate within the context of the UN
Charter and if it meets the legal requirements as contained
in the Montevideo Convention on agitation for nation
states. The requirements are: population, defined territory,
a sitting government and capacity to enter into
agreements. Under international laws, the Igbo can
legitimately request to leave the union of the Nigerian
state if these conditions are met. This is a fact.

Two, if the Igbo have made up their minds to leave the
union, they can pursue their dream through these relevant
international laws and conventions. IPOB’s leader, Mazi
Nnamdi Kanu, has been threatening violence and using
vile words on other ethnic groups. Kanu’s call to, and
threat of, violence against others, or anyone who tries to
stop them, as well as his unpleasant labelling and his hate
speeches against other ethnic groups are absolutely out of
order. There are better, far more decent ways of achieving
independence for Biafra. I oppose the notion that IPOB
has to insult other ethnic groups with the most demeaning
words to be able to make its point.

Three, the ultimatum given to the Igbo to leave the north is
completely out of line. Everything is wrong with it.

Everything. Nobody has any right to give any Nigerian quit
notice on the basis of their ethnic affiliation. To start with,
it is IPOB that is at the forefront of the agitation and it is
preposterous to hold every Igbo responsible for the
activities and pronouncements of IPOB. There are many
Igbo men and women living in the north (and even in
Igboland) who do not support IPOB. On what basis would
you evict them? Are they automatically guilty for being
Igbo? NYC can say “leave Nigeria if you want” but to issue
a quit notice is patently out of order.

Four, NYC missed a very big point. The British voted to
leave the EU; Britons have not been ordered to quit other
EU countries because of that. The Scots held a
referendum on leaving the United Kingdom; they were not
served quit notice for their aspiration. If the Igbo want to
go, the terms can be amicably worked out. I hate to think
of another Biafra war. We have been together, officially,
since 1914 and I don’t think we have to part on a bloody
note. And Biafrans who want to continue living and
working in Nigeria should be able to do so under a new
arrangement. After all, Nigerians live and work all over the
world. That is civilisation. We can break up peacefully if
need be.

Five, since the northern youth have so much adrenalin to
serve quit notice on a whole ethnic group who are
productive economic agents in their domain, why don’t
they direct this energy at Boko Haram, the terrorists
ruining the north-east? They have burnt mosques and
churches, killed Muslims and Christians, abducted boys
and girls. Over 20,000 lives have been lost and over 2.1
million northerners turned to refugees in their own country.

Why can’t the northern youth issue an ultimatum to Boko
Haram rather than the harmless Igbo people going about
their business in the north? Why can’t the youth join the
army en masse to help root out Boko Haram?

Meanwhile, I reserve special commendation for northern
leaders who have risen stoutly to condemn the
irresponsible Kaduna Declaration. I particularly salute the
northern governors, especially Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, and
the emir of Katsina, Alhaji Abdulmumin Kabir, for behaving
like true elders in these troubling times. May we continue
to have builders of peace in the land as we pass through
these difficult moments. As for “elders” like Prof. Ango
Abdullahi, I hope they will be very proud of themselves
when they appear before their Maker to account for the
role they continue to play in stoking and nurturing
sectional tension in Nigeria.

Finally, I ask south-east leaders to call these guys to
order. Many in the north are angry that Igbo of substance
have not condemned Kanu’s anti-north rhetoric. But do
Igbo leaders support him or are they scared of him? Going
by Kanu’s popularity with the street, with so many people
now identifying with him and trying to ride on his coattails,
Igbo leaders appear as constrained as northern leaders
were when there was a mass movement for the
introduction of Sharia in the north in the early 2000s. No
leader wanted to go against the wind. However, I think
tempers must cool first so that we can have a reasonable
conversation. My two cents.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

DANGEROUS GAME

While we were at it, a coalition of Niger Delta “militants”
on Saturday issued their own notice to northerners to quit
the oil region. The deadline coincides with that given to
Igbo in the north by Arewa youth groups: October 1, 2017.
Who is going to issue the next quit notice? If the “tenants”
refuse to vacate the “premises” by the deadline, what is
going to happen? Attacks? Arson? Massacres? Extension
of the ultimatum? Are we now playing Russian roulette
with Nigeria? Are we not starting a dangerous game that
could spin out of control? Have we considered the
implications for millions of innocent lives? Where will these
silly games lead us to? Shootout?

NEW ORDER

I couldn’t believe it when someone told me all the
characters that rummage through our luggage at the
check-in desks of international airports have been sent
packing. Finally! It is only in Nigeria that three agencies
search your bags before you check them in. It is so
embarrassing and nauseating. After that, Immigration and
DSS will check your passports. After that, NDLEA and
Customs will interrogate you. Only in Nigeria! Sadly,
Nigeria is such an unusual country where strange things
become normal and normal things become strange. I am
loving Acting President Yemi Osinbajo’s executive orders.
Some simple things are obviously not too difficult to do.
Progress.

HOPE RISING

From the latest data provided by the National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s export trade value is now more
than import, thanks to agricultural exports which
increased by 82 percent in the first quarter of 2017. These
exports were driven by sesame seeds. Our trade volume
hit N5.29 trillion: notably, import decreased to N2.286
trillion and export increased to N3.0059 trillion. These
figures are not out of this world, but compared to where
we are coming from, they are very encouraging. CBN
governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, has remained stubborn on
these agriculture and FX policies, and he seems to be
winning the argument. Cheering.

THERESA MAYHEM

What took over UK prime minister, Mrs Theresa May? Why
did she call a snap election — three good years ahead of
time — without any pressure from any quarters? To
“strengthen her hand” in Brexit negotiations, as she
claimed? Who asked for another Brexit vote? She has just
spectacularly shot herself in the foot, leading the
Conservatives to a poor showing in Thursday’s general
election, and turning a majority government into a
minority one. Maybe she wanted to discard the toga of
becoming PM without an election. Maybe she was
cocksure the Conservatives would do well following a
good outing in a couple of bye-elections. If it ain’t broke,
why break it? Overconfidence.

TheCable