At first, clawing Nigerian economy out from recession
ditch was thought to be not only a Herculean task,but
one that couldn’t be achieved so fast.

But at the rate at which the Naira/dollar exchange rate
is converging, putting Nigerian economy back on even
keel may be sooner than later.

The analogy above may seem simplistic, but Godwin
Emefiele, the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria,
CBN who is working assiduously towards the
convergence of the official and the parallel markets
foreign exchange, FX rates, appears to be on track to
accomplishing the feat before the end of 2017.

Why is Emefiele becoming the legendary knight in a
shining armor of Nigeria’s financial sector ,when his
neck was literarily being put on the line for the
guillotine as Naira/dollar exchange rate spiked to
N500-$1 in the first few months of this year?

The reason is simple:

Based on data from Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS,
Nigeria’s trade volume is now N5.29 trillion with
export being in excess of N3.0059 trillion, while import
decreased to N2.286.

So for the first time in a long while, Nigeria is selling
more than she is buying from the rest of the world.
And all these good news about trade improvement is
attributable mainly to the significant growth being
recorded in the agricultural sector which rose by a
whopping 82%.

How could improvements in agricultural output be
credited to the CBN’s Godwin Emefiele and not to Audu
Ogbeh the minister of agriculture, you may be
wondering?

Allow me walk you through the long road to recovery
of Nigerian economy through fiscal measures
conceived and implemented by Emefiele as CBN
governor and you would see exactly why:
It may be recalled that in the bid to engender the
positive results, the CBN under Emefiele’s watch
banned 41 items from sourcing FX from the CBN for
the importation- a.k.a Tooth Pick ban.

The justification for the prohibition was that most of
the 41 items could be produced locally, hence they
were cut off from receiving FX from the CBN with a
view to encouraging importers to engage in a sort of
backward integration through farming.

That policy generated a firestorm of condemnation
from both local and international institutions including
all the major policy wonks in Nigeria and attracted
mocking comments from media outfits such as the
highly influential Economist of UK and Time of USA
amongst many other critics.

In fact the policy even triggered the delisting of Nigeria
from the famous Jp Morgan index of emerging markets
which accelerated the flight of private equity firms and
their ‘hot money’ out of Nigeria leading to spike in FX
rate.

Despite all the public reproach from even his
colleagues in the bureaucracy, and call by local and
international pundits for the pulling back of the 41
items ban policy that was dubbed ‘obnoxious’ as the
Naira tumbled in value, Emefiele, apparently not wired
to take the easy route,remained unyielding.

Fortunately for him, his principal, president Muhamadu
Buhari stood by him by shunning vicious calls for the
CBN Gov’s sack.

Another policy that has facilitated the ramping up the
value of Nigeria’s export compared to her import is the
special interventions in the agricultural sector by the
CBN.

Since Nigeria is believed to be spending 40% of its FX
on food import, it was unsurprising that Emefiele
targeted the sector funding intervention in order to cut
down on the FX outflow.

Under the scheme, farmers in Jigawa state alone
received over N15b Naira ( N300b was set aside) to
support their cropping activities and that policy is
yielding bountifully as impressive harvests has been
recorded. It must be stated though, that the abundant
crop yield was partly lifted by federal ministry of
agriculture’s new fertilizer distribution policy which
puts the products directly in the hands of farmers not
middlemen which was previously the case.

The success story in Jigawa state is being replicated
across the country and investments in the value chain
of agricultural products is also being encouraged as
evidenced by the collaboration between Jigawa and
lagos states in the production and milling of rice.

Last Christmas, made in Nigeria rice flew off the
shelves as if it was on auction resulting in a scramble
like the pandemonium that takes place in major sales
outlets in the USA, UK or Dubai whenever there is
massive seasons discount.The demand for Nigerian
rice is so high now that local rice farmers and millers
are currently practically struggling to meet customers
demand.

Arising from the public enlightenment made about
locally grown rice being actually healthier than the
imported brand,it is currently the preferred brand in my
household, and my wife has been unable to meet my
latest request that as part of my new year resolution ,
only made in Nigeria rice should be served. Owing to
the scarcity of the commodity, she has been on queue
on her supplier’s list in her quest to find locally grown
and milled rice.

Going by agriculture and rural development minister ,
Audu Ogbeh’s account during the 41st National
Council on Agriculture meeting held in Kano, Nigeria
spends $20b on food imports annually.

In 2010 alone, former agriculture minister, now
president of African Development bank, Akinwunmi
Adesina reported that Nigeria spent N632b on wheat;
N356b on Rice; and N217b on sugar and N97b on
fish.

Without further equivocation,it is understandable that
Emefiele would choose food import which consumes
40% of our foreign exchange outflow for major
intervention by the CBN through backward integration
or import substitution policy.

Through that vision, he literarily challenged the
hitherto held assumption that farming is not financially
viable hence it scarcely attracted bank funding; and
debunked the notion that Nigerians don’t like
consuming made in Nigerian goods and services; as
well as provide justification for president Buhari’s
vision of Nigerians producing more of what they
consume.

And the best part of it is that what is fast becoming a
sort of agricultural renaissance in Nigeria, does not
just revolve around the leap in rice production and the
craving of Nigerians for the locally produced staple.

But following Emefiele’s farsightedness in CBN,the
cash crop, sesame seed is increasingly looking like the
new crude oil.

In fact the 82% increased value of export recorded in
our country according to the latest NBS statistics is
owed to sesame seed that has multiple uses in the
Western world and therefore in high demand.

Admittedly, when the govt in authority took over the
reins of power on 29th of May, 2015, Naira/dollar
exchange rate was N160/$1, but today it hovers
around N360/$1 and it is envisaged that it would
crash further,probably until it finds equilibrium at half
of today’s rate.

Given that the exchange rate had hit N500/$1 a few
months back and critics of Emefiele’s policies had
forecasted that it might ramped up to the N1000/$1
level, if he did not capitulate to their policy concepts of
floating the Naira freely , it has put butterflies in the
stomach of most entrepreneurs that the Naira is
regaining its lost value.

Much as it is not yet Eldorado at the prevailing rate of
N360/$1, the rates are slowly but surely coming
down, and that’s assuming the massive infusion of
dollars can be sustained,plus the rates have also
become less volatile.

Now, the real icing on the cake is Emefiele’s policy of
making available every quarter, $20,000 for each and
every small and medium scale enterprises, SMEs in
Nigeria to import basic inputs to keep their enterprise
going. This unorthodox policy has been a massive
game changer, as it has buoyed the hitherto sagging
economy with a flurry of activities returning to market
place.

The measure was a strategic response to the needs of
the SMEs that were practically folding up in droves
owing to lack of access, not only to credit, but also to
FX as they were practically crowded out by the
multinationals and behemoths whose insatiable
appetite for FX was being met by banks at the expense
of SMEs -the greatest employers of labour.

Today, spare parts dealers easily import and distribute
their wares which oil the wheel of production in Nigeria
factories and plants.

Prior to the CBN innovative relief, cars spare parts
such as Tyres,batteries, and health care essentials
like medicines plus other commodities like inputs in the
manufacture of goods critical to human existence had
become very scarce in Nigeria.

The lack of access to FX was so severe that living in
Nigeria was becoming comparable to being in a
Hobbesian state comparable to life in Zimbabwe when
it was under global sanction after expelling white
farmers and Venezuela currently suffering from
resource curse.

But today, thanks to Emefiele, the story of Nigerian
economy is changing fast.

Although, the prices of imported items have more or
less doubled-reflecting the hyper inflation rate which is
now said to be about 18% (NBS data)-the shelves are
no more empty but prices are exorbitant.

One policy recently signed into law by acting president
Yemi Osinbajo which would boost SMEs business in
Nigeria is the law allowing them to use their movable
assets like livestock-cattle, goats,chicken and fish as
well as assets like vehicles, plants and machineries to
secure loans. Hitherto banks accepted only fixed
assets like houses and bare land as collateral and the
CBN under Emefiele has been working hard to push
the policy through legislation which it finally succeeded
in doing recently.

Another unique approach to managing FX in Nigeria
introduced by the CBN under Emefiele’s watch, is the
third window (between official and black parallel
market rates) from where school fees and overseas
medical bills are funded. The policy has eased the
discomfort hitherto suffered by parents over payments
of their kids school fees and the infirm who were
seeking medical attention abroad.

Prior to the introduction, parents that were unable to
cope with the arduous task of sourcing funds from the
parallel/black market, were compelled, at a point , to
deprive their kids of high quality education obtainable
abroad.

One monster in the financial services sector which has
remained untamed even under Emefiele, is high
interest rate which currently ranges between 25-30%.

Can the CBN under Emefiele slay the demon of
exorbitant interest rates that has asphyxiated many
enterprises through one of his esoteric or
unconventional policies?

Time will tell.

Meanwhile, as the saying goes, necessity is the
mother of invention,and hopefully the CBN working
with Bankers Committee would step up to the plate.

So by and large, and from experience, Emefiele has
been very inventive. The optimism is anchored on the
fact that he has so far catered for all segments of the
society through his very unusual, practical and
effective initiatives that are now cooling the economy
which had become incandescent owing to the
voracious appetite of Nigerians for foreign made goods
and services.

Arising from the accomplishments highlighted above,
love him or loathe him, in a very uncanny way,
Emefiele has become the accidental and unsung hero
of this administration. This is underscored by the fact
that he has proven pundits wrong with his Perculiar
fiscal policy measures not taught in Harvard business
school or London school of economics, which some of
his biggest critics, The Time and The Economist
magazines of New York and London respectively,
espouse and which they expected him to copy and
paste in Nigeria.

In appreciation of his uncommon financial
management prowess, Emefiele was recently honored
with the prestigious Ziks leadership award and for his
special role in the effort to pull Nigeria out of recession,
he has also not gone unnoticed by Africa’s richest
man, Aliko Dangote ,who is fast becoming a major
farmer, through the major stakes he is taking in the
food basket zones of Nigeria.

According to Dangote, “Emefiele has contributed in
saving the Nigerian economy from recession”
Continuing , he said “The CBN has been very
transparent in its policies and we are grateful for the
contributions of the Bank in helping the economy come
out of recession”.

All things being equal, many more accolades and
garlands may be coming the way of Emefiele for his
unique and efficacious economic sense in the period
left of his five years tenure of which he spent the first
year serving the previous govt that appointed him and
now two years with the present regime.

Without much ado, from zero approval level at the
inception of this administration, Emefiele is fast
attaining a hero’s status in a space of 24 months.

Not many public servants can boast of such a
phenomenal credentials in the current dispensation.
And it’s not too late for all other public servants to do
better.

Onyibe, a development strategist, alumnus of the
Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts
university, Massachusetts, USA and former cabinet
member of Delta state government, sent this piece
from Lagos.

TheCable