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DAKAR,
Senegal — A reference in a newly released Islamic State publication
mentions an apparent new title for a key member of Boko Haram, raising
questions about its leadership and future after a major Nigerian
military offensive.
The
report in the 41st edition of the Islamic State’s Al-Naba magazine,
published Tuesday, carried an interview with a man it called Boko
Haram’s “governor” for West Africa, Abu Musab al-Barnawi, according to
the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors militant jihadist media.
The
reference appears to indicate a promotion for Mr. al-Barnawi, who had
been cited in a January 2015 video as a Boko Haram spokesman. The report
made no mention of the status of Abubakar Shekau, who had been thought
to be the leader of Boko Haram. It said Mr. al-Barnawi did not condone
attacks on mosques and markets frequented by Muslims — a hallmark tactic
of the organization.
The
report from the Islamic State led to a new round of speculation about
the hierarchy and status of Boko Haram, which for the past year has been
on the run from intensive strikes by the Nigerian military.
Boko
Haram pledged allegiance to the Islamic State last spring, about the
same time the military ramped up its push. While it is unclear what kind
of support the Islamic State has been giving Boko Haram, American
military officials have said the two groups have started collaborating
more closely.
The interview was a question-and-answer with Mr. al-Barnawi, who decried the spread of Christianity in Nigeria
and talked of “booby-trapping and blowing up every church that we are
able to reach, and killing all of those who we find from the citizens of
the Cross,” according to SITE’s translation of the report.
He
also complained that the news media had assigned the name Boko Haram to
the group because it could not pronounce its real name: Jama’at Ahl
al-Sunnah Lil Dawa Wal Jihad.
Boko
Haram, an Islamic militant group operating largely in northeast
Nigeria, has killed thousands of people, sometimes deploying young boys
and girls as suicide bombers to attack markets, mosques and even camps
for those seeking protection from the group’s fighters. Boko Haram began
about 14 years ago as part of a movement against Western education that
quickly spiraled into a yearslong murderous rampage that has spread
across the nation’s borders.
The
military offensive against Boko Haram has been largely successful,
driving fighters deep into the forest and securing villages that Boko
Haram once held. In recent months fighters have been stealing cattle and
food, an indication that they are scrambling for basics to survive.
Military officials say many captured militants are scrawny and
malnourished.
Some
analysts say the report published on Tuesday might indicate that Boko
Haram, under pressure for resources, is turning to the Islamic State for
more help.
“Has
this resource pressure created more of an opening for the Islamic State
to a gain stronger foothold and influence?” asked Elizabeth Donnelly,
deputy head of the Africa Program at Chatham House, a research institute
in London. “That is a very, very open question. If anything, what this
opens up is questions about the next stage of Boko Haram’s evolution.”
Despite
the Nigerian military’s victories, Boko Haram elements have continued
to launch numerous suicide bombings and in some areas have retaken
villages liberated by soldiers. Recent attacks have become increasingly
brazen. Last week, fighters ambushed a United Nations convoy injuring
workers on their way from distributing aid outside the northeastern city
of Maiduguri. In June fighters attacked a military unit in Niger,
Nigeria’s northern neighbor, killing 32 soldiers.
The
report on Tuesday from the Islamic State publication also raised
questions about the fate of Mr. Shekau, known as Boko Haram’s leader
since the 2009 death of the militant group’s founder, Mohammed Yusuf.
Some analysts have speculated that Mr. Shekau may be dead. Others think
he has been marginalized, or is perhaps leading a core group of fighters
while others have split off.
“Abu
Musab al-Barnawi is now the ‘wali,’ or leader, and Shekau is not,” said
Jacob Zenn, an African affairs fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a
Washington-based research organization. “But Shekau likely would not
accept a demotion, so I imagine in order to get him demoted they had to
eliminate him.”
In
June, Gen. Thomas D. Waldhauser, the head of the Pentagon’s Africa
Command, told the Senate at his confirmation hearing that the Islamic
State had disavowed Mr. Shekau because of his tactics, which are extreme
even by the Islamic State’s standards.
“For
example, he uses children as suicide bombers, he attacks other Muslims,
and he’s been told by ISIL to stop doing that, but he has not done so,”
General Waldhauser said, using an alternate acronym for the Islamic
State.
He
told the committee that half of Boko Haram’s members had broken off
“because they were not happy with the amount of buy-in, if you will,
from Boko Haram into the ISIL brand.”
During
the hearing, the general indicated that the Islamic State was trying to
reconcile the two groups but that Mr. Shekau had “not really fallen
into line with what ISIL would like him to do.”
Some
security analysts think Mr. al-Barnawi is the leader of the group of
Boko Haram fighters who have split from Mr. Shekau over disputes about
attacking mosques.
The
report from the Islamic State publication quoted Mr. al-Barnawi as
saying Boko Haram does not endorse indiscriminate attacks on
marketplaces and mosques.
Such
restraint aligns with Ansaru, a Boko Haram splinter group that was
active about four years ago but has been largely quiet in recent years.
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